Publications

BACKGROUND: Health systems are increasingly implementing interventions to reduce older patients' use of low-value medications. However, prescribers' perspectives on medication value and the acceptability of interventions to reduce low-value prescribing are poorly understood.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the characteristics that affect the value of a medication and those factors influencing low-value prescribing from the perspective of primary care physicians.

DESIGN: Qualitative study using semi-structured interviews.

SETTING: Academic and community primary care practices within University of Pittsburgh Medical Center health system.

PARTICIPANTS: Sixteen primary care physicians.

MEASUREMENTS: We elicited 16 prescribers' perspectives on definitions and examples of low-value prescribing in older adults, the factors that incentivize them to engage in such prescribing, and the characteristics of interventions that would make them less likely to engage in low-value prescribing.

RESULTS: We identified three key themes. First, prescribers viewed low-value prescribing among older adults as common, characterized both by features of the medications themselves and of the particular patients to whom they were prescribed. Second, prescribers described the causes of low-value prescribing as multifactorial, with factors related to patients, prescribers, and the health system as a whole, making low-value prescribing a default practice pattern. Third, interventions addressing low-value prescribing must minimize the cognitive load and time pressures that make low-value prescribing common. Interventions increasing time pressure or cognitive load, such as increased documentation, were considered less acceptable.

CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate that low-value prescribing is a well-recognized phenomenon, and that interventions to reduce low-value prescribing must consider physicians' perspectives and address the specific patient, prescriber and health system factors that make low-value prescribing a default practice.

BACKGROUND: Most states have recently passed laws requiring prescribers to use prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs) before prescribing opioid medications. The impact of these mandates on discontinuing chronic opioid therapy among Veterans managed in the Veterans Health Administration (VA) is unknown. We assess the association between the earliest of these laws and discontinuation of chronic opioid therapy in Veterans receiving VA health care.

METHODS: We conducted a comparative interrupted time-series study in the 5 states mandating PDMP use before August 2013 (Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, New Mexico, and Tennessee), adjusting for trends in the 17 neighboring control states without such mandates. We modeled 25 months of prescribing for each state centered on the month the mandate became effective. We included Veterans prescribed long-term outpatient opioid therapy (305 of the preceding 365 d). Our outcomes were discontinuation of chronic opioid therapy (primary outcome) and the average daily quantity of opioids per Veteran over the following 6 months (secondary outcome).

RESULTS: We included 250 monthly cohorts with 225,665 unique Veterans and 3.4 million Veteran-months. Baseline discontinuation rates before the PDMP mandates were 0.4%-2.7% per month. Kentucky saw a discontinuation increase of 1 absolute percentage point following its PDMP mandate which decreased over time. The other 4 states had no significant association between their mandates and change in opioid discontinuation. There was no evidence of decreasing opioid quantities following PDMP mandates.

CONCLUSION: We did not find consistent evidence that state laws mandating provider PDMP use were associated with the discontinuation of chronic opioid therapy within the VA for the time period studied.

UNLABELLED: Regional variation in procedure use often reflects the uncertainty about the risks and benefit of procedures. In Switzerland, regional variation in vertebroplasty and balloon kyphoplasty rates was high, although the variation declined between 2013 and 2018. Substantial parts of the variation remained unexplained, and likely signal unequal access and differing physician opinion.

PURPOSE: To assess trends and regional variation in percutaneous vertebroplasty (VP) and balloon kyphoplasty (BKP) use across Switzerland.

METHODS: We conducted a population-based analysis using patient discharge data from all Swiss acute care hospitals for 2013-2018. We calculated age/sex-standardized mean procedure rates and measures of variation across VP/BKP-specific hospital areas (HSAs). We assessed the influence of potential determinants of variation using multilevel regression models with incremental adjustment for demographics, cultural/socioeconomic, health, and supply factors.

RESULTS: We analyzed 7855 discharges with VP/BKP from 31 HSAs. The mean age/sex-standardized procedure rate increased from 16 to 20/100,000 persons from 2013 to 2018. While the variation in procedure rates across HSAs declined, the overall variation remained high (systematic component of variation from 56.8 to 6.9 from 2013 to 2018). Determinants explained 52% of the variation.

CONCLUSIONS: VP/BKP procedure rates increased and regional variation across Switzerland declined but remained at a high level. A substantial part of the regional variation remained unexplained by potential determinants of variation.

INTRODUCTION: Gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms and disorders affect an increasingly large group of veterans. Opioid use may be rising in this population, but this is concerning from a patient safety perspective, given the risk of dependence and lack of evidence supporting opioid use to manage chronic pain. We examined the characteristics of opioid prescriptions and factors associated with chronic opioid use among chronic GI patients dually enrolled in the DVA and Medicare Part D.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we used linked, national patient-level data (from April 1, 2011, to December 31, 2014) from the VA and Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services to identify chronic GI patients and observe opioid use. Veterans who had a chronic GI symptom or disorder were dually enrolled in VA and Part D and received ≥1 opioid prescription dispensed through the VA, Part D, or both. Chronic GI symptoms and disorders included chronic abdominal pain, chronic pancreatitis, inflammatory bowel diseases, and functional GI disorders. Key outcome measures were outpatient opioid prescription dispensing overall and chronic opioid use, defined as ≥90 consecutive days of opioid receipt over 12 months. We described patient characteristics and opioid use measures using descriptive statistics. Using multiple logistic regression modeling, we generated adjusted odds ratios and 95% CIs to determine variables independently associated with chronic opioid use. The final model included variables outlined in the literature and our conceptual framework.

RESULTS: We identified 141,805 veterans who had a chronic GI symptom or disorder, were dually enrolled in VA and Part D, and received ≥1 opioid prescription dispensed from the VA, Part D, or both. Twenty-six percent received opioids from the VA only, 69% received opioids from Medicare Part D only, and 5% were "dual users," receiving opioids through both VA and Part D. Compared to veterans who received opioids from the VA or Part D only, dual users had a greater likelihood of potentially unsafe opioid use outcomes, including greater number of days on opioids, higher daily doses, and higher odds of chronic use.

CONCLUSIONS: Chronic GI patients in the VA may be frequent users of opioids and may have a unique set of risk factors for unsafe opioid use. Careful monitoring of opioid use among chronic GI patients may help to begin risk stratifying this group. and develop tailored approaches to minimize chronic use. The findings underscore potential nuances within the opioid epidemic and suggest that components of the VA's Opioid Safety Initiative may need to be adapted around veterans at a higher risk of opioid-related adverse events.

IMPORTANCE: Atrial fibrillation is a common cardiac rhythm disturbance causing substantial morbidity and mortality that disproportionately affects racial/ethnic minority groups. Anticoagulation reduces stroke risk in atrial fibrillation, yet studies show it is underprescribed in racial/ethnic minority patients.

OBJECTIVE: To compare initiation of anticoagulant therapy by race/ethnicity for patients in the Veterans Health Administration (VA) system with atrial fibrillation.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This retrospective cohort study included 111 666 patients within the VA system with incident atrial fibrillation between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2018. Data were analyzed between December 1, 2019, and March 31, 2020.

EXPOSURES: Any anticoagulation was defined as receipt of warfarin or direct-acting oral anticoagulants, apixaban, dabigatran, edoxaban, or rivaroxaban.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Initiation of any anticoagulation (or direct-acting oral anticoagulant therapy in those who initiated any anticoagulation) was examined within 90 days of an index atrial fibrillation diagnosis.

RESULTS: Our final cohort comprised 111 666 patients (109 386 men [98.0%] and 95 493 White patients [85.5%]; mean [SD] age, 72.9 [10.4] years). A total of 69 590 patients (62.3%) initiated any anticoagulant therapy, varying 10.5 percentage points by race/ethnicity (P < .001); initiation was lowest in Asian (52.2% [n = 676]) and Black (60.3% [n = 6177]) patients and highest in White patients (62.7% [n = 59 881]). Among anticoagulant initiators, 45 381 (65.2%) used direct-acting oral anticoagulants, varying 7.2 percentage points by race/ethnicity (P < .001); initiation was lowest in Hispanic (58.3% [n = 1470]), American Indian/Alaska Native (59.8% [n = 201]), and Black (60.9% [n = 3763]) patients and highest in White patients (66.0% [n = 39 502). Compared with White patients, the odds of initiating any anticoagulant therapy were significantly lower for Asian (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.82; 95% CI, 0.72-0.94) and Black (aOR, 0.90; 95% CI 0.85-0.95) patients. Among initiators, the adjusted odds of direct-acting oral anticoagulant initiation were significantly lower for Hispanic (aOR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.70-0.89), American Indian/Alaska Native (aOR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.57-0.99), and Black (aOR, 0.74; 95% CI 0.69-0.80) patients.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This cohort study found that in patients with incident atrial fibrillation managed in the VA system, race/ethnicity was independently associated with initiating any anticoagulant therapy and direct-acting oral anticoagulant use among anticoagulant initiators. Understanding the reasons for these treatment disparities is essential to improving equitable atrial fibrillation management and outcomes among racial/ethnic minority patients treated in the VA system.

Health system data incompletely capture the social risk factors for drug overdose. This study aimed to improve the accuracy of a machine-learning algorithm to predict opioid overdose risk by integrating human services and criminal justice data with health claims data to capture the social determinants of overdose risk. This prognostic study included Medicaid beneficiaries (n = 237,259) in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania enrolled between 2015 and 2018, randomly divided into training, testing, and validation samples. We measured 290 potential predictors (239 derived from Medicaid claims data) in 30-day periods, beginning with the first observed Medicaid enrollment date during the study period. Using a gradient boosting machine, we predicted a composite outcome (i.e., fatal or nonfatal opioid overdose constructed using medical examiner and claims data) in the subsequent month. We compared prediction performance between a Medicaid claims only model to one integrating human services and criminal justice data with Medicaid claims (i.e., integrated model) using several metrics (e.g., C-statistic, number needed to evaluate [NNE] to identify one overdose). Beneficiaries were stratified into risk-score decile subgroups. The samples (training = 79,087, testing = 79,086, validation = 79,086) had similar characteristics (age = 38±18 years, female = 56%, white = 48%, having at least one overdose = 1.7% during study period). Using the validation sample, the integrated model slightly improved on the Medicaid claims only model (C-statistic = 0.885; 95%CI = 0.877-0.892 vs. C-statistic = 0.871; 95%CI = 0.863-0.878), with small corresponding improvements in the NNE and positive predictive value. Nine of the top 30 most important predictors in the integrated model were human services and criminal justice variables. Using the integrated model, approximately 70% of individuals with overdoses were members of the top risk decile (overdose rates in the subsequent month = 47/10,000 beneficiaries). Few individuals in the bottom 9 deciles had overdose episodes (0-12/10,000). Machine-learning algorithms integrating claims and social service and criminal justice data modestly improved opioid overdose prediction among Medicaid beneficiaries for a large U.S. county heavily affected by the opioid crisis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether early initiation of prophylactic anticoagulation compared with no anticoagulation was associated with decreased risk of death among patients admitted to hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in the United States.

DESIGN: Observational cohort study.

SETTING: Nationwide cohort of patients receiving care in the Department of Veterans Affairs, a large integrated national healthcare system.

PARTICIPANTS: All 4297 patients admitted to hospital from 1 March to 31 July 2020 with laboratory confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and without a history of anticoagulation.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome was 30 day mortality. Secondary outcomes were inpatient mortality, initiating therapeutic anticoagulation (a proxy for clinical deterioration, including thromboembolic events), and bleeding that required transfusion.

RESULTS: Of 4297 patients admitted to hospital with covid-19, 3627 (84.4%) received prophylactic anticoagulation within 24 hours of admission. More than 99% (n=3600) of treated patients received subcutaneous heparin or enoxaparin. 622 deaths occurred within 30 days of hospital admission, 513 among those who received prophylactic anticoagulation. Most deaths (510/622, 82%) occurred during hospital stay. Using inverse probability of treatment weighted analyses, the cumulative incidence of mortality at 30 days was 14.3% (95% confidence interval 13.1% to 15.5%) among those who received prophylactic anticoagulation and 18.7% (15.1% to 22.9%) among those who did not. Compared with patients who did not receive prophylactic anticoagulation, those who did had a 27% decreased risk for 30 day mortality (hazard ratio 0.73, 95% confidence interval 0.66 to 0.81). Similar associations were found for inpatient mortality and initiation of therapeutic anticoagulation. Receipt of prophylactic anticoagulation was not associated with increased risk of bleeding that required transfusion (hazard ratio 0.87, 0.71 to 1.05). Quantitative bias analysis showed that results were robust to unmeasured confounding (e-value lower 95% confidence interval 1.77 for 30 day mortality). Results persisted in several sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS: Early initiation of prophylactic anticoagulation compared with no anticoagulation among patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 was associated with a decreased risk of 30 day mortality and no increased risk of serious bleeding events. These findings provide strong real world evidence to support guidelines recommending the use of prophylactic anticoagulation as initial treatment for patients with covid-19 on hospital admission.