Publications

IMPORTANCE: One-third of older adults in the US have depression, often treated with psychotherapy and antidepressants. Previous studies suggesting an increased risk of falls and related injuries (FRI) associated with antidepressant use may be affected by confounding by indication or immortal time bias.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between FRI risk and first-line treatments in older adults with depression.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study used a target trial emulation framework with a cloning-censoring-weighting approach with Medicare claims data from 2016 to 2019. Participants included fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 years or older with newly diagnosed depression. Data were analyzed from October 1, 2023, to March 31, 2024.

EXPOSURES: First-line depression treatments including psychotherapy, sertraline, escitalopram, citalopram, mirtazapine, duloxetine, trazodone, fluoxetine, bupropion, paroxetine, and venlafaxine.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE: One-year FRI rate, restricted mean survival time (RMST), and adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) with 95% CI.

RESULTS: Among 101 953 eligible beneficiaries (mean [SD] age, 76 [8] years), 63 344 (62.1%) were female, 7404 (7.3%) were Black individuals, and 81 856 (80.3%) were White individuals. Compared with the untreated group, psychotherapy use was not associated with FRI risk (aHR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.82-1.17]), while other first-line antidepressants were associated with a decreased FRI risk (aHR ranged from 0.74 [95% CI, 0.59-0.89] for bupropion to 0.83 [95% CI, 0.67-0.98] for escitalopram). The FRI incidence ranged from 63 (95% CI, 53-75) per 1000 person-year for those treated with bupropion to 87 (95% CI, 83-90) per 1000 person-year for those who were untreated. The RMST ranged from 349 (95% CI, 346-350) days for those who were untreated to 353 (95% CI, 350-356) days for those treated with bupropion.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study of older Medicare beneficiaries with depression, first-line antidepressants were associated with a decreased FRI risk compared with untreated individuals. These findings provide valuable insights into their safety profiles, aiding clinicians in their consideration for treating depression in older adults.

OBJECTIVES: Buprenorphine is an effective evidence-based medication for opioid use disorder (OUD). Yet premature discontinuation undermines treatment effectiveness, increasing the risk of mortality and overdose. We developed and evaluated a machine learning (ML) framework for predicting buprenorphine care discontinuity within 12 months following treatment initiation.

METHODS: This retrospective study used United States (US) 2018-2021 MarketScan commercial claims data of insured individuals aged 18-64 who initiated buprenorphine between July 2018 and December 2020 with no buprenorphine prescriptions in the previous six months. We measured buprenorphine prescription discontinuation gaps of ≥30 days within 12 months of initiating treatment. We developed predictive models employing logistic regression, decision tree classifier, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, Adaboost, and random forest-extreme gradient boosting ensemble. We applied recursive feature elimination with cross-validation to reduce dimensionality and identify the most predictive features while maintaining model robustness. For model validation, we used several statistics to evaluate performance, such as C-statistics and precision-recall curves. We focused on two distinct treatment stages: at the time of treatment initiation and one and three months after treatment initiation. We employed SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis that helped us explain the contributions of different features in predicting buprenorphine discontinuation. We stratified patients into risk subgroups based on their predicted likelihood of treatment discontinuation, dividing them into decile subgroups. Additionally, we used a calibration plot to analyze the reliability of the models.

RESULTS: A total of 30,373 patients initiated buprenorphine and 14.98% (4551) discontinued treatment. C-statistic varied between 0.56 and 0.76 for the first-stage models including patient-level demographic and clinical variables. Inclusion of proportion of days covered (PDC) measured after one month and three months following treatment initiation significantly increased the models' discriminative power (C-statistics: 0.60 to 0.82). Random forest (C-statistics: 0.76, 0.79 and 0.82 with baseline predictors, one-month PDC and three-months PDC, respectively) outperformed other ML models in discriminative performance in all stages (C-statistics: 0.56 to 0.77). Most influential risk factors of discontinuation included early stage medication adherence, age, and initial days of supply.

CONCLUSION: ML algorithms demonstrated a good discriminative power in identifying patients at higher risk of buprenorphine care discontinuity. The proposed framework may help healthcare providers optimize treatment strategies and deliver targeted interventions to improve buprenorphine care continuity.

Background/Objectives: Concurrent opioid (OPI) and benzodiazepine (BZD) use may exacerbate injurious fall risk (e.g., falls and fractures) compared to no use or use alone. Yet, patients may need concurrent OPI-BZD use for co-occurring conditions (e.g., pain and anxiety). Therefore, we examined the association between longitudinal OPI-BZD dosing patterns and subsequent injurious fall risk. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study including non-cancer fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries initiating OPI and/or BZD in 2016-2018. We identified OPI-BZD use patterns during the 3 months following OPI and/or BZD initiation (i.e., trajectory period) using group-based multi-trajectory models. We estimated the time to first injurious falls within the 3-month post-trajectory period using inverse-probability-of-treatment-weighted Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Among 622,588 beneficiaries (age ≥ 65 = 84.6%, female = 58.1%, White = 82.7%; having injurious falls = 0.45%), we identified 13 distinct OPI-BZD trajectories: Group (A): Very-low OPI-only (early discontinuation) (44.9% of the cohort); (B): Low OPI-only (rapid decline) (15.1%); (C): Very-low OPI-only (late discontinuation) (7.7%); (D): Low OPI-only (gradual decline) (4.0%); (E): Moderate OPI-only (rapid decline) (2.3%); (F): Very-low BZD-only (late discontinuation) (11.5%); (G): Low BZD-only (rapid decline) (4.5%); (H): Low BZD-only (stable) (3.1%); (I): Moderate BZD-only (gradual decline) (2.1%); (J): Very-low OPI (rapid decline)/Very-low BZD (late discontinuation) (2.9%); (K): Very-low OPI (rapid decline)/Very-low BZD (increasing) (0.9%); (L): Very-low OPI (stable)/Low BZD (stable) (0.6%); and (M): Low OPI (gradual decline)/Low BZD (gradual decline) (0.6%). Compared with Group (A), six trajectories had an increased 3-month injurious falls risk: (C): HR = 1.78, 95% CI = 1.58-2.01; (D): HR = 2.24, 95% CI = 1.93-2.59; (E): HR = 2.60, 95% CI = 2.18-3.09; (H): HR = 2.02, 95% CI = 1.70-2.40; (L): HR = 2.73, 95% CI = 1.98-3.76; and (M): HR = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.32-2.91. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that 3-month injurious fall risk varied across OPI-BZD trajectories, highlighting the importance of considering both dose and duration when assessing injurious fall risk of OPI-BZD use among older adults.

BACKGROUND: Although biological plausibility suggests that fluoroquinolones could lead to rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (RRD) through collagen degradation, real-world evidence on their relative risk of RRD is inconsistent, with limited information on absolute risk estimates.

OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to estimate the RRD risk associated with fluoroquinolones versus other antibiotics with similar indications (i.e., comparison antibiotics).

METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study analyzing claims data from adult patients who initiated fluoroquinolones or amoxicillin/clavulanate or ampicillin/sulbactam or extended-spectrum cephalosporins using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (2009-2018) and the United States IBM MarketScan Database (2011-2020). Patients were followed for up to 90 days after cohort entry. For each country's data, after 1:1 propensity score (PS) matching, we used Cox regression models to estimate RRD risks, presented with hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI). We used random-effects meta-analyses to derive pooled HRs across both counties.

RESULTS: Of 24,172,032 eligible patients comprising 7,944,620 insured Taiwanese (mean age [SD], 46 [18] years; 45% male) and 16,227,412 United States commercially insured individuals (mean age [SD], 47 [16] years; 40% male), 10,137,468 patients initiated fluoroquinolones, 10,203,794 initiated amoxicillin/clavulanate or ampicillin/sulbactam, and 3,830,770 initiated extended-spectrum cephalosporins. After PS matching, similar RRD incidence rates were observed between fluoroquinolones and amoxicillin/clavulanate or ampicillin/sulbactam users (0.33 [95% CI, 0.19-0.56] versus 0.35 [95% CI, 0.26-0.46] per 1,000 person-years), yielding an HR of 0.97 (95% CI, 0.76-1.23). The RRD incidence rates were also similar comparing fluoroquinolones to extended-spectrum cephalosporins (0.36 [95% CI, 0.22-0.57] versus 0.34 [95% CI, 0.22-0.50] per 1,000 person-years; HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.92-1.27]). The comparative safety profiles remained consistent by country, various patient characteristic (e.g., diabetes or ophthalmic conditions), type of fluoroquinolones, follow-up duration, or treatment setting.

CONCLUSION: This large-scale study, leveraging real-world data from Taiwan and the United States, showed a low and comparable RRD risk among adults who initiated fluoroquinolones or other antibiotics with similar indications. This suggests that the RRD risk should not deter the use of fluoroquinolone when clinically indicated.

BACKGROUND: Opioid use disorder contributes to maternal morbidity and mortality in the United States. Little is known about how the patterns of buprenorphine dose and duration throughout pregnancy may affect neonatal and postpartum outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the associations between trajectories of buprenorphine utilization and dose during pregnancy on maternal and neonatal health outcomes.

STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study among 2925 pregnant persons with opioid use disorder, followed from the estimated start date of pregnancy through 90 days after delivery. We used administrative healthcare data from Medicaid-enrolled individuals to assess buprenorphine dose and use and maternal (postpartum buprenorphine continuation and overdose) and neonatal (low birthweight, neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS)) outcomes. Group-based trajectory modelling was used to identify trajectories of buprenorphine dose and use during pregnancy. Weighted multivariable logistic regression assessed the association between buprenorphine trajectories and outcomes.

RESULTS: We identified 8 trajectories of buprenorphine utilization and dose during pregnancy. Regression analyses found that high doses of buprenorphine and a longer duration of buprenorphine use during pregnancy was associated with higher odds of postpartum buprenorphine continuation and reduced rates of overdose. Higher doses and longer duration of buprenorphine treatment were not associated with an increase in NAS or term low birth weight, relative to moderate or low doses or shorter treatment duration.

CONCLUSION: A longer duration and higher dose of buprenorphine treatment during pregnancy were associated with improved odds of postpartum buprenorphine continuation and were not associated with adverse neonatal outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) effectiveness is highly dependent on medication adherence, which is associated with differential HIV risks and possibly sexually transmitted infection (STI).

METHODS: This retrospective cohort study of PrEP users (01/01/2012-12/31/2021) used the MarketScan database of commercially insured enrollees to examine PrEP adherence trajectory groups' associations with HIV and STI acquisition risks. Distinct PrEP adherence trajectories were identified by group-based trajectory modeling among individuals who used oral PrEP. The primary outcome was HIV acquisition incidence, and secondary was STI rate, compared among trajectory groups. Inverse probability treatment weighting time-varying Cox proportional hazards models assessed HIV acquisition, and Poisson regression models assessed STI.

RESULTS: Among 23 258 oral PrEP users, 4 distinct PrEP adherence patterns were identified: minimal use (10.5% of the cohort), rapidly declining (25.4%), gradually declining (24.3%), and consistently high (39.8%). Compared with the minimal use group, the gradually declining (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 0.53; 95% CI, 0.31-0.90) and consistently high (AHR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.30-0.84) PrEP adherence groups showed decreased HIV incidence risks. Compared with the minimal use group, the rapidly declining (adjusted incidence rate ratio [AIRR], 1.35; 95% CI, 1.07-1.72), gradually declining (AIRR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.38-2.18), and consistently high (AIRR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.64-2.58) groups were associated with increased STI risk.

CONCLUSIONS: These findings underscore the benefits of continuing and remaining adherent to PrEP and may also inform public health strategies, clinical guidelines, and interventions aimed at maximizing the effectiveness of PrEP in reducing new HIV infections while developing targeted strategies to prevent STIs with PrEP use.

The goal of this study was to assess trends in postpartum hemorrhage (PPH), its risk factors, and maternal comorbidity burden in the United States using aggregate data from the Evolve to Next-Gen Accrual to Clinical Trials (ENACT) network. This federated network employs interactive querying of electronic health record data repositories in academic medical centers nationwide. We conducted repeated annual cross-sectional analyses to evaluate PPH occurrence and comorbidities across various ethnoracial and sociodemographic groups, starting with a large cohort of 1,287,675 unique delivery hospitalizations collected from 22 ENACT sites between 2005 and 2022. During this time, there was a statistically significant increasing trend in the prevalence of PPH, rising from 5,634 to 10,504 PPH per 100,000 deliveries (P trend <0.001). Our findings revealed a continuous upward trend in PPH rates that remained consistent among women with ≥ 1 comorbid conditions (P trend <0.001) and those with ≥ 1 maternal risk factor (P trend <0.001). This result aligns with prior studies and extends beyond the time periods previously reported. Overall, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander women had the highest PPH prevalence (  13%), followed by Asian (9.8%), American Indian or Alaska Native (8.9%), multirace (8.6%), Black or African American (8.4%) and White (7.4%) women. The top PPH risk factor identified was placenta previa or accreta, while the top comorbidity was antepartum hemorrhage / placental abruption. The most common cause of PPH, namely uterine atony, was prevalent in ENACT data. Our analysis highlights significant ethnoracial disparities and underscores the need for targeted preventative interventions.

OBJECTIVES: The 2021 US Cures Act may engage patients to help reduce diagnostic errors/delays. We examined the relationship between patient portal registration with/without note reading and test/referral completion in primary care.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of patients with visits from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2021, and order for (1) colonoscopy, (2) dermatology referral for concerning lesions, or (3) cardiac stress test at 2 academic primary care clinics. We examined differences in timely completion ("loop closure") of tests/referrals for (1) patients who used the portal and read ≥1 note (Portal + Notes); (2) those with a portal account but who did not read notes (Portal Account Only); and (3) those who did not register for the portal (No Portal). We estimated the predictive probability of loop closure in each group after adjusting for socio-demographic and clinical factors using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS: Among 12 849 tests/referrals, loop closure was more common among Portal+Note-readers compared to their counterparts for all tests/referrals (54.2% No Portal, 57.4% Portal Account Only, 61.6% Portal+Notes, P < .001). In adjusted analysis, compared to the No Portal group, the odds of loop closure were significantly higher for Portal Account Only (OR 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.4), and Portal+Notes (OR 1.4; 95% CI, 1.3-1.6) groups. Beyond portal registration, note reading was independently associated with loop closure (P = .002).

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Compared to no portal registration, the odds of loop closure were 20% higher in tests/referrals for patients with a portal account, and 40% higher in tests/referrals for note readers, after controlling for sociodemographic and clinical factors. However, important safety gaps from unclosed loops remain, requiring additional engagement strategies.

IMPORTANCE: Guidelines recommend deprescribing opioids in older adults due to risk of adverse effects, yet little is known about patient-clinician opioid deprescribing conversations.

OBJECTIVE: To understand the experiences of older adults and primary care practitioners (PCPs) with using opioids for chronic pain and discussing opioid deprescribing.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This qualitative study conducted semistructured individual qualitative interviews with 18 PCPs and 29 adults 65 years or older prescribed opioids between September 15, 2022, and April 26, 2023, at a Boston-based academic medical center. The PCPs were asked about their experiences prescribing and deprescribing opioids to older adults. Patients were asked about their experiences using and discussing opioid medications with PCPs.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES: Shared and conflicting themes between patients and PCPs regarding perceptions of opioid prescribing and barriers to deprescribing.

RESULTS: In total, 18 PCPs (12 [67%] younger that 50 years; 10 [56%] female; and 14 [78%] based at an academic practice) and 29 patients (mean [SD] age, 72 [5] years; 19 [66%] female) participated. Participants conveyed that conversations between PCPs and patients on opioid use for chronic pain were typically challenging and that conversations regarding opioid risks and deprescribing were uncommon. Three common themes related to experiences with opioids for chronic pain emerged in both patient and PCP interviews: opioids were used as a last resort, opioids were used to improve function and quality of life, and trust was vital in a clinician-patient relationship. Patients and PCPs expressed conflicting views on risks of opioids, with patients focusing on addiction and PCPs focusing on adverse drug events. Both groups felt deprescribing conversations were often unsuccessful but had conflicting views on barriers to successful conversations. Patients felt deprescribing was often unnecessary unless an adverse event occurred, and many patients had prior negative experiences tapering. The PCPs described gaps in knowledge on how to taper, a lack of clinical access to monitor patients during tapering, and concerns about patient resistance.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this qualitative study, PCPs and older adults receiving long-term opioid therapy viewed the use of opioids as a beneficial last resort for treating chronic pain but expressed dissonant views on the risks associated with opioids, which made deprescribing conversations challenging. Interventions, such as conversation aids, are needed to support collaborative discussion about deprescribing opioids.