Publications

UNLABELLED: Oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) represent a major advance in hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment. Along with recent updates in HCV screening policy and expansions in insurance coverage, treatment demand in the United States is changing rapidly. Our objective was to project the characteristics and number of people needing antiviral treatment and HCV-associated disease burden in the era of oral DAAs. We used a previously developed and validated Hepatitis C Disease Burden Simulation model (HEP-SIM). HEP-SIM simulated the actual clinical management of HCV from 2001 onward, which included antiviral treatment with pegylated interferon (Peg-IFN)-based therapies as well as the recent oral DAAs, risk-based and birth-cohort HCV screening, and the impact of the Affordable Care Act. We also simulated two hypothetical scenarios-no treatment and treatment with Peg-IFN-based therapies only. We estimated that in 2010, 2.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9-3.1) million noninstitutionalized people were viremic, which dropped to 1.9 (95% CI, 1.4-2.6) million in 2015, and projected to drop below 1 million by 2020. A total of 1.8 million HCV patients will receive HCV treatment from the launch of oral DAAs in 2014 until 2030. Based on current HCV management practices, it will take 4-6 years to treat the majority of patients aware of their disease. However, 560,000 patients would still remain unaware by 2020. Even in the oral DAA era, 320,000 patients will die, 157,000 will develop hepatocellular carcinoma, and 203,000 will develop decompensated cirrhosis in the next 35 years.

CONCLUSIONS: HCV-associated disease burden will still remain substantial in the era of oral DAAs. Increasing HCV screening and treatment capacity is essential to further decreasing HCV burden in the United States. (Hepatology 2016;64:1442-1450).

BACKGROUND: Tobacco use is the leading cause of preventable death and disability. New payment and delivery system models including global payment and accountable care have the potential to increase use of cost-effective tobacco cessation services.

OBJECTIVE: To examine how the Alternative Quality Contract (AQC) established in 2009 by Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts (BCBSMA) has affected tobacco cessation service use.

DESIGN: We used 2006-2011 BCBSMA claims and enrollment data to compare adults 18-64 years in AQC provider organizations to adults in non-AQC provider organizations. We examined the AQC's effects on all enrollees; a subset at high risk of tobacco-related complications due to certain medical conditions; and behavioral health service users.

MAIN MEASURES: We examined use of: (1) any cessation treatment (pharmacotherapy or counseling); (2) varenicline or bupropion; (3) nicotine replacement therapies (NRTs); (4) cessation counseling; and (4) combination therapy (pharmacotherapy plus counseling). We also examined duration of pharmacotherapy use and number of counseling visits among users.

KEY RESULTS: Rates of tobacco cessation treatment use were higher following implementation of the AQC relative to the comparison group overall (2.02 vs. 1.87 %, p < 0.0001), among enrollees at risk for tobacco-related complications (4.97 vs. 4.66 %, p < 0.0001), and among behavioral health service users (3.67 vs. 3.25 %, p < 0.0001). Statistically significant increases were found for use of varenicline or bupropion alone, counseling alone, and combination therapy, but not for NRT use, pharmacotherapy duration, or number of counseling visits among users.

CONCLUSIONS: In its initial three years, the AQC was associated with increases in use of tobacco cessation services.

BACKGROUND: Numerous interventions are available to boost medication adherence, but the targeting of these interventions often relies on crude measures of poor adherence. Group-based trajectory models identify individuals with similar longitudinal prescription filling patterns. Identifying distinct adherence trajectories may be more useful for targeting interventions, although the association between adherence trajectories and clinical outcomes is unknown.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between adherence trajectories for oral hypoglycemics and subsequent hospitalizations among diabetes patients.

DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study.

PATIENTS: A total of 16,256 Pennsylvania Medicaid enrollees, non-dually eligible for Medicare, initiating oral hypoglycemics between 2007 and 2009.

MAIN MEASURES: We used group-based trajectory models to identify trajectories of oral hypoglycemics in the 12 months post-treatment initiation, using monthly proportion of days covered (PDC) as the adherence measure. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the association between trajectories and time to first diabetes-related hospitalization/emergency department (ED) visits in the following year. We used the C-index to compare prediction performance between adherence trajectories and dichotomous cutpoints (annual PDC <80 vs. ≥80 %).

RESULTS: The mean annual PDC was 0.58 (SD 0.32). Seven trajectories were identified: perfect adherers (9 % of the cohort), nearly perfect adherers (31.4 %), moderate adherers (21.0 %), low adherers (11.0 %), late discontinuers (6.8 %), early discontinuers (9.7 %), and non-adherers with only one fill (11.1 %). Compared to perfect adherers, trajectories of moderate adherers (HR = 1.48, 95 % CI 1.25, 1.75), low adherers (HR = 1.51, 95 % CI 1.25, 1.83), and non-adherers with only one fill (HR = 1.35, 95 % CI 1.09, 1.67) had greater risk of diabetes-related hospitalizations/ED visits. Predictive accuracy was improved using trajectories compared to dichotomized cutpoints (C-index = 0.714 vs. 0.652).

CONCLUSIONS: Oral hypoglycemic treatment trajectories were highly variable in this large Medicaid cohort. Low and moderate adherers and those filling only one prescription had a modestly higher risk of hospitalizations/ED visits compared to perfect adherers. Trajectory models may be valuable in identifying specific non-adherence patterns for targeting interventions.

A time lens, which can be used to reshape the spectral and temporal properties of light, requires the ultrafast manipulation of optical signals and presents a significant challenge for single-photon application. In this work, we construct a time lens based on dispersion and sum-frequency generation to spectrally engineer single photons from an entangled pair. The strong frequency anticorrelations between photons produced from spontaneous parametric down-conversion are converted to positive correlations after the time lens, consistent with a negative-magnification system. The temporal imaging of single photons enables new techniques for time-frequency quantum state engineering.

OBJECTIVE: Antipsychotic use among young children has grown rapidly despite a lack of approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for broad use in this age group. Characteristics of physicians who prescribed antipsychotics to young children were identified, and prescribing patterns involving young children and adults were compared.

METHODS: Physician-level prescribing data from IMS Health's Xponent database were linked with American Medical Association Masterfile data and analyzed. The sample included all U.S. psychiatrists and a random sample of 5% of family medicine physicians who wrote at least ten antipsychotic prescriptions per year from 2008 to 2011 (N=31,713). Logistic and hierarchical binomial regression models were estimated to examine physician prescribing for children ages zero to nine, and the types and numbers of ingredients used for children versus adults ages 20 to 64 were compared.

RESULTS: Among antipsychotic prescribers, 42.2% had written at least one antipsychotic prescription for young children. Such prescribing was more likely among physicians age ≤39 versus ≥60 (odds ratio [OR]=1.70) and physicians in rural versus nonrural areas (OR=1.11) and was less likely among males (OR=.93) and graduates of a top-25 versus a lower-ranked U.S. medical school (OR=.87). Among physicians who prescribed antipsychotics to young children and adults, 75.0% of prescriptions for children and 35.7% of those for adults were for drugs with an FDA-approved indication for that age. Fewer antipsychotic agents were prescribed for young children (median=2) versus adults (median=7).

CONCLUSIONS: Prescribing antipsychotics for young children was relatively common, but prescribing patterns differed between young children and adults.

BACKGROUND: Variation in physician adoption of new medications is poorly understood. Traditional approaches (eg, measuring time to first prescription) may mask substantial heterogeneity in technology adoption.

OBJECTIVE: Apply group-based trajectory models to examine the physician adoption of dabigratran, a novel anticoagulant.

METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using prescribing data from IMS Xponent™ on all Pennsylvania physicians regularly prescribing anticoagulants (n=3911) and data on their characteristics from the American Medical Association Masterfile. We examined time to first dabigatran prescription and group-based trajectory models to identify adoption trajectories in the first 15 months. Factors associated with rapid adoption were examined using multivariate logistic regressions.

OUTCOMES: Trajectories of monthly share of oral anticoagulant prescriptions for dabigatran.

RESULTS: We identified 5 distinct adoption trajectories: 3.7% rapidly and extensively adopted dabigatran (adopting in ≤3 mo with 45% of prescriptions) and 13.4% were rapid and moderate adopters (≤3 mo with 20% share). Two groups accounting for 21.6% and 16.1% of physicians, respectively, were slower to adopt (6-10 mo post-introduction) and dabigatran accounted for <10% share. Nearly half (45.2%) of anticoagulant prescribers did not adopt dabigatran. Cardiologists were much more likely than primary care physicians to rapidly adopt [odds ratio (OR)=12.2; 95% confidence interval (CI), 9.27-16.1] as were younger prescribers (age 36-45 y: OR=1.49, 95% CI, 1.13-1.95; age 46-55: OR=1.34, 95% CI, 1.07-1.69 vs. >55 y).

CONCLUSIONS: Trajectories of physician adoption of dabigatran were highly variable with significant differences across specialties. Heterogeneity in physician adoption has potential implications for the cost and effectiveness of treatment.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Uncertainty about optimal treatment duration for buprenorphine opioid agonist therapy may lead to substantial variation in provider and payer decision-making regarding treatment course. We aimed to identify distinct trajectories of buprenorphine use and examine outcomes associated with these trajectories to guide health system interventions regarding treatment length.

DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING: US Pennsylvania Medicaid.

PATIENTS: A total of 10 945 enrollees aged 18-64 years initiating buprenorphine treatment between 2007 and 2012.

MEASUREMENTS: Group-based trajectory models were used to identify trajectories based on monthly proportion of days covered with buprenorphine in the 12 months post-treatment initiation. We used separate multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to examine associations between trajectories and time to first all-cause hospitalization and emergency department (ED) visit within 12 months after the first-year treatment.

FINDINGS: Six trajectories [Bayesian information criterion (BIC) = -86 246.70] were identified: 24.9% discontinued buprenorphine < 3 months, 18.7% discontinued between 3 and 5 months, 12.4% discontinued between 5 and 8 months, 13.3% discontinued > 8 months, 9.5% refilled intermittently and 21.2% refilled persistently for 12 months. Persistent refill trajectories were associated with an 18% lower risk of all-cause hospitalizations [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.70-0.95] and 14% lower risk of ED visits (HR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.78-0.95) in the subsequent year, compared with those discontinuing between 3 and 5 months.

CONCLUSIONS: Six distinct buprenorphine treatment trajectories were identified in this population-based low-income Medicaid cohort in Pennsylvania, USA. There appears to be an association between persistent use of buprenorphine for 12 months and lower risk of all-cause hospitalizations/emergency department visits.

Older adults with arthritis or joint pain were targeted for a pilot program enhancing the Arthritis Foundation Exercise Program with the 10 Keys™ to Healthy Aging Program. Using a one-group, pre-post design, feasibility was examined and improvements in preventive behaviors, arthritis outcomes, and cardiometabolic outcomes were explored. A 10-week program was developed, instructors were recruited and trained, and four sites and 51 participants were recruited. Measures included attendance, adherence, satisfaction, preventive behaviors, Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (pain and stiffness), glucose, and cholesterol. Three fourths of participants attended >50% of the sessions. At 6 and 12 months, more than one half performed the exercises 1 to 2 days per week, whereas 28% and 14% exercised 3 to 7 days per week, respectively. Participants (92%) rated the program as excellent/very good. Nonsignificant changes were observed in expected directions. Effect sizes were small for arthritis and cardiometabolic outcomes. This program engaged community partners, demonstrated feasibility, and showed improvements in some preventive behaviors and health risk profiles. [Res Gerontol Nurs. 2016; 9(3):123-132.].